I remember many years ago when my wife and I went scuba diving on the Great Barrier Reef.  It was her first time, the adrenaline was flowing and she was entirely focused on following the step-by-step instructions to keep the kit working.  And in doing so, she missed the beautiful, jaw-dropping sight of a giant sting ray floating 2 ft above her head.

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In times of crisis, the mind and body naturally reduce their focus to tactical actions that ensure immediate survival.  But this can often be at the expense of keeping an eye on the bigger picture, which in turn leads to failure.  Airlines have learned from previous disasters that pilots need to know not only how to operate a plane, but also how to step back and see the bigger picture in order to handle a crisis.  While set in a different context, leaders today also need to have a dual focus.  It is vital they make survival decisions through the strategic lens of where the company is heading.

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This is doubly difficult when it is likely that we will be accommodating very different norms in the future.  In the UK, there are three massive disruptions that are likely to impact how companies should operate, all accelerated by the current coronavirus pandemic.

 

First, changing consumer demand.  During this period of lock-down, consumers will spend less, spend on different things, and use the internet even more for home delivery.  This will undoubtedly have a longer-term impact, and companies should be prepared to adapt their product architectures, propositions and distribution strategies to accommodate this consumer shift.

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Second, the role of government.  Companies will need to adapt operations and invest in new initiatives in order to accommodate the emerging mandates from government in at least three areas – the creation of a net-zero carbon economy, the accommodation of new public health norms (will companies become responsible for certifying the cleanliness of their premises, for example?), and finally the implications of the huge increase in public debt we are about to take on.

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Third, leaving the EU.  Different regulations, changing trading partners, different tariffs.  A renewed focus on new homegrown industries, and a concentration on commercialising our longstanding excellence in scientific discovery, technology and innovation.  This will require companies across industries to re-examine their supply chains, review existing markets, and consider new customer opportunities.

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With three disruptive forces on the horizon, leaders need to navigate their companies through this crisis by spinning three plates together.  They need to keep one eye on the future as well as a focus on today. 

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First, focus on people.  Today’s imperative is to make sure employees are safe and healthy, providing clear direction and then delegating authority to local teams (who are best placed to respond to the myriad of issues they will be dealing with).  But this crisis will also be an opportunity to accelerate changes (around organisational structure, personnel, accountabilities) that will be necessary given the new normal we will all find ourselves in post-lockdown.

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Second, build resilience into operations.  Cash and liquidity are the immediate requirements, which will often mean cutting costs while doing the right thing by employees and customers.  Certain companies, as we have already seen, will run out too soon.  But new resilience needs to be built in to when operations start again.  Supply chains will only be as strong as the weakest link.  Finding those weak links and strengthening/changing them will be critical.  In addition, create a people plan for how to get operations back on stream, given the likelihood that a percentage of the workforce will still be unable to work.

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Third, understand the likely new normal.  Today, one can plot multiple scenarios even simply along two axes such as health and economic impacts.  It is therefore important to work out the common elements across such scenarios that allow concrete plans to be made.  In such periods of disruption, the risks and opportunities multiply.  Finding this common ground and planning accordingly, will take analysis, judgement and time.  Building agility into the process will be key.  And some survival decisions will depend on these points of view – if an operation needs to be closed, which one will depend on which is least likely to thrive in the new normal.

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The point is that work needs to be underway now in reviewing the bigger picture along these three axes so that survival decisions today are the right ones for establishing the strong foundations in the new normal.  Otherwise, like my wife did, you will miss the sting ray floating above your head.